Summary
South Africa’s electricity demand landscape has shifted fundamentally due to persistent supply imbalances, regulatory reform, and rapid growth in behind-the-meter (BTM) rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Amendments to Schedule 2 of the Electricity Regulation Act significantly accelerated rooftop PV uptake, while prolonged load shedding in 2022 and 2023 further drove consumer-led investment in PV and battery energy storage. Although these developments improved consumer resilience, they weakened the relationship between metered demand and underlying system requirements, creating growing challenges for electricity demand forecasting and transmission planning.
Read more Read lessThis paper presents a methodology to integrate rooftop PV impacts into electricity demand forecasting where connected capacity data are incomplete or unavailable. Using hourly metered load data across pre- and post-PV uptake periods, the approach infers PV impacts from demand suppression and load profile reshaping. By combining metered, spatial, and behavioural indicators, the methodology estimates current PV penetration, forecasts sector-specific uptake, and spatially aligns impacts with grid infrastructure. The results support improved visibility of demand displacement and variability, enabling more robust network planning and strategic investment decisions in an increasingly decentralised electricity system.
Additional informations
| Publication type | Session Materials |
|---|---|
| Reference | C1_10669_2026 |
| Publication year | |
| Publisher | CIGRE |
| Country | South Africa |
| Study committees | |
| File size | 1 MB |
| Price for non member | 30 € |
| Price for member | 30 € |
Authors
BREEDT Jana; NYEMBE Bongani; FERREIRA Sonja
Keywords
Behind-the-meter solar, Consumer behaviour, Demand displacement, Electricity demand forecasting, Rooftop PV
