Structuring the Optimum Viable Portfolio for the Brazilian Electric Power System

(the Northeastern region), where favourable wind resources and solar irradiation conditions are quite usable and excellent in several locations; a large concentration of coal resources in the

South region, making the region socially and electrically dependent on coal; considerable gas resources, mainly from the pre-salt offshore region, but with insufficient infrastructure for gas transportation, and a gradual insertion of LNG; continuous market demand for energy and power, and a vast transmission system that covers continental dimensions, with a mix of HVDC and HVAC transmission lines; as well as limited interconnections with neighbouring countries.

A matrix of actions to meet adequate power system requirements must be based on three main pillars, which constitute the planner and operator trilemma: system reliability maximization, reducing CO₂ emissions and environment impacts, all while aiming at minimization at affordable price.

The main challenge of this contribution is to establish optimal and viable conditions and methodologies to face such trilemma that should be an optimal solution that balances the three aforementioned pillars for different power systems, considering the rates of each pillar in order to maximize the social welfare.

It can be observed that some power systems are trying to accomplish these objectives, but there is a current trend to overestimate the importance of "environment” compared to the other two main trilemma requirements. This trend can provoke several distortions that will be observed when such new power systems will be fully operational and performance of their power systems 1 Paris Session 2026

August 23 to 28

Palais des Congrès, Paris, France

Of course, special care must be taken to prevent over or underestimating of any of the trilemma components, as this constitutes a critical challenge for planning alternatives. This aspect will be discussed in the paper, indicating how to overcome the environmentalist pressures in favour of an optimal planning and operation of the Brazilian Interconnected Power System (BIPS).

In this way, the objective of this paper is to show how the optimal trilemma can be best achieved for the Brazilian power system, considering all the characteristics indicated before. This means conducting a real and effective technical analysis, independent of any "a priori" assumptions or issues not related to a purely technical approach and commitment to meeting societal goals.

Last but not least it is important to emphasize the real problem of system reliability and how this issue can affect not only consumers directly but also the country's economy. In fact, reliability concerns should deserve a special technical approach to be adopted in the governance sector, and such important strategy will be more detailed in the present contribution.