The Impact of Climate Factors on the Operation and Forecasting of Operating Conditions of the United Power System of Russia to Increase Power System Resilience

The Russian Federation is less susceptible to natural disasters that occur infrequently but have a high impact (Low-Frequency High-Impact Events). However, there is a noticeable trend of rising outdoor air temperatures in various regions, new summer historical peaks in load and electricity consumption in power systems, and sharp fluctuations in outdoor air temperature.

Analysis of the operation of Russia's power systems indicates that climatic factors have had a substantially greater impact on power system operating parameters in recent years. The System

Operator has evaluated the sustainability of these trends to decide whether to use them in power system development planning. Changes in climatic factors in terms of their impact on power systems lead to the following consequences:

 changes in the relationship between air temperature and electricity and power consumption;

 changes in consumer behavior in response to air temperature changes;

 changes in the load profile, seasonal shifts in peak loads;

 increased sensitivity of electricity consumption to air temperature changes;

 decreased transmission capacity of transmission lines and grid equipment;

 increased operational constraints for Thermal and Nuclear power plants generating equipment.

In this setting, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climatic factors on electricity and power consumption, as well as on the operating conditions of power system facilities, is of high relevance. For the United Power System (UPS) of Russia, key factors include outdoor air temperature, intensity of icing, cloud cover (illuminance), and wind loads.

To improve the accuracy of long-term electricity and power consumption forecasting, taking into account climatic factors, the System Operator of UPS of Russia calculates temperature influence coefficients at the level of power systems, energy districts, and for specific consumer groups. This necessitates a more detailed analysis by consumer type.

A special method is used to account for the influence of periods with sustained extremely high

(or abnormally low) outdoor air temperatures on peak loads when calculating influence coefficients. This method involves a comparative calculation of temperatures over the current and previous days.

In Metropolitan area power systems, cloud cover data modeling is used to improve the accuracy of electricity and power consumption forecasts. Empirical dependencies have been determined for the influence of wind speed and direction on electricity and power consumption, and data accumulation is ongoing. In the future, the wind chill index is planned to be integrated into the models for calculating temperature coefficients as an additional regressor. This will enable a more thorough consideration of the combined effects of cold and wind, particularly during the winter.

To improve the reliability of UPS of Russia's grid equipment under icing conditions, the System

Operator conducts an annual analysis of icing events after the icing season ends. The System

Operator works with grid companies to develop measures to create or modernize ice melting schemes and grid facilities reinforcement.

Incorporating these factors into forecasting models for various periods and their combinations improves the accuracy of electricity and power consumption forecasts, as well as power system reliability and resilience.