Scenario Planning Methods and Impacts on Investment Outcomes

Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) — to inform network investment planning.

Simultaneously, municipalities are developing Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs) to guide local decarbonisation of heat, transport, and buildings. These two exercises share common subject matter but proceed independently, using different spatial boundaries, assumptions, and data. The resulting disconnect risks misallocated network investment and undeliverable municipal plans.

This paper describes the UK DNO planning process for an international audience and explains how LAEP digital tooling creates a structured pathway for municipal engagement within that process. It analyses the structural differences between DFES and LAEPs, identifies the capability gap that prevents municipal officers from engaging meaningfully with network scenario models, and argues that enabling municipalities to build their own scenarios — and convert them into network-feasibility-filtered project pipelines — improves forecast accuracy for the DNO and plan deliverability for the municipality. Five of six UK DNOs have adopted a common LAEP digital platform, with over 300 municipalities having access.