Strategically planning a Transmission Network – the Challenge of the Energy Transition in the North of Scotland

Strategic planning requires evaluating future network requirements, informed by the short-term connection pipeline and longer-term potential, including connection locations and simulation of market operation. With interchanging power flows between generation, storage and demand, deterministic modelling may not lead to long term efficient network outcomes. We are developing a NoS system model in an energy market simulation tool with network granularity to run a security constrained DC optimal power flow. Our ‘proxy probabilistic’ approach combines elements of deterministic planning, year-round hourly modelling representing a more

‘probabilistic’ approach, heuristic ‘what if’ views and targeted spatial optimisation.

This paper describes our approach and its drivers and shows the network impact of differing future views of NoS generation, storage and demand growth and their combined impact on differing areas of the network based on thermal constraints. The work highlights areas of future potential network reinforcement. The work is limited to the NoS transmission network and does not consider the limitations of the wider GB system.