Comparative Assessment of Conventional and Resilience-Oriented Planning Strategies for Distribution Grid Networks under Future Climate Risk Scenarios

This paper presents a structured framework for the comparative assessment of two alternative planning strategies for a grid projected into a future target year. The first strategy represents a conventional planning path, while the second strategy adopts a resilience-oriented planning perspective in which site-specific hazard exposure is systematically incorporated as an additional decision dimension in grid development. Both planning paths are developed under identical boundary conditions. Following the technical assessment using established power system analysis methods, an economic evaluation is conducted from a life cycle perspective, considering investment and maintenance costs, as well as the economic impacts of climateinduced failures and restoration efforts. Beyond economic aspects, resilience is assessed as a structural system property. Different indicators are used to illustrate how planning decisions affect system vulnerability and robustness. The results indicate that while resilience-oriented planning requires higher initial investments, it leads to a more robust long-term cost-risk profile under conditions of increasing uncertainty. Although demonstrated using climate-related hazards, the proposed framework is transferable to other threat scenarios and supports distribution system operators in evaluating strategic trade-offs in long-term grid development.