Summary
This paper describes the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) dynamic reserve by using advanced analytics to manage operational uncertainty for bulk power system operations. Motivated by growing system variability from renewable integration, electrification, large Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven loads, and extreme weather, MISO developed a dynamic reserve framework supported by Machine Learning (ML) models. The paper focuses on three key innovations including net uncertainty quantification across different operation timeframes, ML-based net uncertainty forecasting and dynamically setting reserve requirements in MISO’s energy and ancillary service co-optimized markets.
Read more Read lessCentral to this approach are AI/ML models that generate time-series forecasts of Net
Uncertainty, aggregating uncertainties from load and renewable forecast errors, generator outages, interchange variability, and transmission constraints. These forecasts are used to align reserve requirements with anticipated system risk in day-ahead and real-time markets.
Production experiences of Short-Term Reserve have demonstrated improved situational awareness, more efficient resource commitment, and enhanced reliability. Building on this success, MISO is extending the framework to Regulation Reserve and Ramp Capability
Products through tailored uncertainty models and real-time pattern recognition tools, all supported by a cloud-based Uncertainty Platform. These efforts highlight the value of AI enabled, adaptive uncertainty management in maintaining reliable and efficient electricity markets amid increasing system complexity.
Additional informations
| Publication type | Session Materials |
|---|---|
| Reference | C2_10855_2026 |
| Publication year | |
| Publisher | CIGRE |
| Country | United States of America |
| Study committees | |
| File size | 372 KB |
| Price for non member | 30 € |
| Price for member | 30 € |
Authors
GHESMATI Arezou - MISO-Energy, United States of America; TSAI Chen-Hao - MISO-Energy, United States of America; WANG Congcong - MISO-Energy, United States of America
Keywords
