Summary
As the global energy paradigm shifts toward carbon neutrality, the transition to carbon-free energy sources has become an inevitable necessity for human survival. However, this shift introduces significant operational challenges to power systems due to the inherent volatility of weather-dependent resources. This study analyzes the "Iberian Peninsula Blackout" of 2025 as a representative case of systemic collapse driven by high renewable penetration and forecasting failures. Drawing parallels to South Korea’s "island grid" environment, we examine the rapid and disproportionate expansion of solar power—particularly behind-the-meter (BTM) installations—which now accounts for approximately 70.8% of the nation’s total solar capacity as of 2025. To quantify the resulting operational risks, this paper defines a new metric, the
Read more Read lessPotential Maximum Power Demand Error (PMPDE), which represents the maximum forecasting discrepancy during nationwide meteorological shifts. Our analysis reveals that
PMPDE in Korea has surged nearly 4.5-fold, reaching 20 GW in 2025, posing a severe threat to grid stability. To mitigate these risks, the Korea Power Exchange (KPX) has pioneered the field of Energy-Meteorology, implementing advanced strategies such as Cloud Motion Vector
(CMV) forecasting, WRF-Solar optimization, and the recruitment of specialized meteorologists for 24/7 grid monitoring. This study concludes that a profound integration of meteorological precision into power system operations is the primary safeguard for the future energy transition and proposes the establishment of an international consultative body to share these vital experiences globally.
Additional informations
| Publication type | Session Materials |
|---|---|
| Reference | C2_11347_2026 |
| Publication year | |
| Publisher | CIGRE |
| Country | Korea, Republic of (South Korea) |
| Study committees | |
| File size | 2 MB |
| Price for non member | 30 € |
| Price for member | 30 € |
Authors
KIM Hyunsu - Korea Power eXchange; SON Heung-Gu - Korea Power eXchange; LEE Kun Suk - Korea Power eXchange; LEE Chang Gun - Korea Power eXchange
Keywords
Energy-Meteorology, Potential Maximum Power Demand Error (PMPDE), Behind-the-Meter (BTM) Solar, Grid Stability, Renewable Energy Curtailment
