Summary
The reliability of an electrical power system is fundamental to ensuring a continuous and secure electricity supply, which is essential for national security, economic stability, and societal wellbeing. In long-term power generation planning, maintaining system reliability and adequacy is vital for strategic decision-making. However, conventional optimization and simulation tools exhibit limitations in representing generation outages throughout the year, as they mainly focus on deterministic reserve margins in megawatts while neglecting the probabilistic nature of reliability assessment. This gap restricts the ability to fully evaluate and mitigate risks associated with potential system disruptions, particularly under dynamic operational conditions.
Read more Read lessTo address these challenges, this study presents a comprehensive reliability assessment of
Jordan’s power system by analyzing the availability of generation units - classified into conventional and renewable (RE) sources - to capture their distinct reliability characteristics.
Advanced reliability indices, including Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), Loss of Load
Expectation (LOLE), and Expected Energy Not Served (EENS), are applied to perform a probabilistic evaluation. The analysis, conducted at an hourly resolution using high-resolution
Python simulations, ensures accuracy, scalability, and reproducibility. The methodology comprises two main components. First, conventional unit availability is evaluated using hourly operational data for 2023–2024. Second, a data-driven approach using the K-means algorithm clusters actual RE generation data to derive representative seasonal availability profiles. Both data sources are integrated into a system-wide hourly seasonal Capacity Outage Probability
Table (COPT), combined with the load model to form a probabilistic risk model. Three reserve scenarios - no reserve, 235 MW (largest unit), and 424 MW (10% of 2024 peak load) - were evaluated. Results reveal seasonal reliability variations and sensitivity to RE generation variability, offering key insights for enhancing Jordan’s resilient and sustainable energy strategies.
Additional informations
| Publication type | Session Materials |
|---|---|
| Reference | C2_11917_2026 |
| Publication year | |
| Publisher | CIGRE |
| Country | Jordan, Hashemite Kingdom of |
| Study committees | |
| File size | 898 KB |
| Price for non member | 30 € |
| Price for member | 30 € |
Authors
ABUYAHYA Ahmad - National Electric Power Company
