Operational Security Challenges in the Western Balkans: Lessons Learned from the 2023 and 2024 Regional Grid Incidents

The paper also addresses the development of procedures aimed at improving regional coordination and security analyses among transmission system operators (TSO), with the goal of enhancing efficiency in preventing and managing similar incidents in the future. A key role in this process is played by the Security Coordination Centre - SCC, which, through a coordinated approach among different TSOs, ensures the synchronization of activities in addressing security challenges within operational planning.

The study focuses on comparing the system’s operational planning practices before and after the incidents, with a detailed analysis of the technical and organizational measures that have been implemented. Special attention is given to the enhancement of security analyses by improving congestion forecasting procedures. The scope of daily N‑X contingency reports has also been expanded. Additional validation reports for TSOs have been introduced, along with institutionalised daily operational teleconferences that utilise an extended set of input and output data. Information exchange among TSOs has been significantly improved, while the practice of conducting supplementary analyses and applying remedial actions to day-ahead network models has become standard.

In addition to the descriptive analysis, the paper includes an evaluation of the effectiveness of the newly adopted measures through concrete examples of potentially critical scenarios observed during 2025. Throughout that year, several operational situations emerged that had the potential to escalate into significant incidents and threaten system stability. However, thanks to the timely application of preventive and curative measures, many of which were developed as direct lessons learned from the 2023 and 2024 events, the system remained in a stable and controlled state.

These real-life examples provide practical validation of the improvements in forecasting, coordination, and contingency management introduced after the two incidents. The results indicate a significant enhancement in the system’s ability to absorb disturbances, prevent their propagation across borders, and maintain operational integrity without triggering regional disruptions.

The conclusions underline the need for deeper and more formalised regional coordination, as well as a redefinition of operational security criteria under conditions of increasing system unpredictability, further driven by the ongoing energy transition. Special emphasis is placed on recommendations for TSOs in the Western Balkans region, aimed at increasing system resilience, reducing the risk of cascading failures, and lowering the likelihood of recurrence of scenarios similar to the analysed incidents.