Material Flow Analysis of Geo-Economic Tensions Affecting the Supply Chains of Low-Carbon Technologies: The Case of the Electric Grid

Material Flow Analysis (MFA) model of the French overhead lines (OHL) network, coupling econometric modelling for historical reconstruction with a stochastic framework for uncertainty quantification.

Results highlight three strategic findings. First, the model reveals a gap between recent real consumption—shaped by a period of network stability and optimized asset management—and theoretical maintenance requirements. Depending on renewal policy, material demand could surge by up to 90% by 2040 relative to this theoretical baseline. A more probable scenario projects a 40% increase, though extended smoothing strategies could mitigate this peak, maintaining flows at a high but stable level. Second, circularity remains essential for decarbonization and supply security yet faces structural limits: recycling alone cannot bridge the volume gap created by grid expansion and conductor upsizing for climate adaptation, a challenge compounded by metallurgical and industrial-economic barriers. Third, dependence on low-volume process auxiliaries (e.g., magnesium, tungsten) creates supply chain vulnerabilities that warrant attention. This framework aims to quantify these physical and industrial risks to support proactive Transmission System Operators (TSOs) decision-making.