Energy Hubs in Brazil: A Proposal for Feasibility Assessment using Real Options Analysis

(EHs) using Real Options Analysis (ROA), emphasizing the growing relevance of such hubs for global decarbonization. Energy Hubs integrate multiple renewable sources with technologies for conversion, storage, and consumption—such as hydrogen electrolysis, batteries, and digital infrastructure—offering a coordinated way to optimize multi-energy flows. Brazil’s Northeast region is highlighted as especially suitable for these systems due to its excellent solar and wind resources, port infrastructure, and emerging regulatory frameworks supporting hydrogen and renewable energy markets.

A detailed case study models a hybrid EH in Suape (a maritime industrial complex in

Pernambuco state, Brazil) combining 300 MW of solar PV, 200 MW of wind, 25 MW/100

MWh of battery storage, a 100 MW electrolyzer, and a 20 MW data center. Uncertainties in hydrogen price, electricity price, CAPEX, and renewable generation were represented using lognormal distributions.

The options to delay, expand, and abandon add considerable value, particularly the abandonment option, which provides strong downside protection. When combined, these flexibilities shift the project from an unfeasible baseline to a positive expected value of about

USD 386 million, demonstrating that managerial flexibility is essential for the economic viability of complex Energy Hubs under uncertainty.