Distribution Strategic Planning to Prepare for Disruptive Future Scenarios

(DSOs) to proactively assess emerging risks and opportunities posed by disruptive forces shaping the future of the distribution grid. These forces include the electrification of transportation and heating, rapid adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), climate stressors, evolving regulatory and stakeholder expectations, and the introduction of new market structures and technologies that foster a more actively managed distribution system. Traditional tactical planning, which focuses on near-term, project-specific needs, is inadequate for these challenges. DSP fills this gap by enabling long-term, system-wide, scenario-based assessments that inform strategic decisions and modernisation pathways.

The objective of this paper is to provide planners, regulators, and stakeholders with an overview of DSP, including its key concepts, use cases, and practical implementation examples. The paper contrasts DSP with conventional planning and introduces a structured framework comprising four steps: problem definition, risk and opportunity assessment, evaluation of alternatives, and development of a strategic plan. Key considerations for each step are discussed, with an emphasis on how DSP enables DSOs to explore the “art of the possible”— unconstrained by current planning criteria or capabilities—and to identify investment and modernisation pathways aligned with long-term strategic goals. Unlike tactical studies that yield specific projects, DSP studies produce strategic deliverables such as revised planning criteria, new programmes, and policy recommendations. To illustrate DSP in practice, the paper presents advanced methodologies and tools, including the Distribution Strategic Capacity Planning (DSCP) framework and the Strategic Distribution

Resilience Planning framework. DSCP enables DSOs to assess substation and feeder capacity constraints under multiple future scenarios without requiring detailed power-flow models. It incorporates scenario-based decision analysis and supports screening for non-wires solutions

(NWS) such as DER integration and demand flexibility. The DSCP framework is implemented in a software tool that streamlines scenario analysis and visualisation for long-term capacity planning. The resilience planning framework addresses vulnerabilities to high-impact, lowfrequency events driven by climate change. It applies a five-step process—exposure, vulnerability, risk, ranking, and adaptation—to identify and prioritise resilience measures.

These methodologies allow DSOs to anticipate future risks, protect critical services, and align investments with societal and regulatory expectations.

The paper concludes by emphasising DSP’s role in enabling efficient and equitable investments that meet future needs under increasing uncertainty. Key implementation considerations include organisational readiness, data and modelling requirements, and integration with existing planning processes. Future research priorities include enhanced scenario development, improved long-term forecasting, expanded use of NWS, and multi-objective planning to better align tactical and strategic efforts.

By complementing traditional planning with DSP, DSOs can move beyond incremental upgrades toward holistic, forward-looking strategies that support decarbonisation, resilience, and emerging technologies under constrained budgets.